Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change.

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Pervasive changes in algal indicators since pre-industrial times: A paleolimnological study of changes in primary production and diatom assemblages from ~200 Canadian lakes.

Anthropogenic stressors affect lakes around the world, ranging in scale from catchment-specific pollutants to the global impacts of climate change. Canada has a large number and diversity of lakes, yet it is not well understood how, where, and when human impacts have affected these lakes at a national scale. The NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network sought to create the first nationwide database of Canadian lake health, undertaking a multi-year survey of 664 lakes spanning 12 ecozones across Canada. A key objective of the network is to determine where, by how much, and why have Canadian lakes changed during the Anthropocene. To address this objective, we compared sedimentary chlorophyll a and diatoms from modern and pre-industrial sediment intervals of ~200 lakes. The lakes spanned a range of sizes, ecozones, and degrees of within-catchment land use change. We inferred the quantity of chlorophyll a, its isomers and main diagenetic products using visible reflectance spectroscopy. We found widespread increases in primary production since pre-industrial times. Primary production increased, on average, across all ecozones, human impact classes, and stratification classes. Likewise, an increase in planktonic diatom taxa over time was detected in the majority of sampled lakes, likely due to recent climate warming. However, regional factors (ecozones) explained the most variation in modern diatom species assemblages as well as their temporal turnover. Furthermore, lakes with high human impact (i.e., higher weighted proportions of human land use in the catchment) exhibited greater taxonomic turnover than lakes with a low human impact class. The greatest diatom turnover was found in the agriculture-rich Prairies and the lowest in the sparsely populated Boreal Shield and Taiga Cordillera ecozones. Overall, our study highlights that drivers operating at different geographic scales (i.e., climatic and land-use changes) have led to significant alterations in algal indicators since pre-industrial times across the country.

Adverse effects of atrazine, DCMU and metolachlor on phytoplankton cultures and communities at environmentally relevant concentrations using Fast Repetition Rate Fluorescence.

The widespread and persistent contamination of freshwater environments by low concentrations of pesticides is a growing concern worldwide. In aquatic environments, herbicide pollution is of greatest concern for phytoplankton, due to their similarities to terrestrial plants. Through the use of Fast Repetition Rate Fluorometry (FRRF) during weeklong experiments on 10 phytoplankton cultures from 4 classes and 4 natural communities, we demonstrate that PSII-inhibiting herbicides, notably atrazine that is extensively used in North America, consistently have effects on freshwater phytoplankton photophysiology at concentrations far below concentrations affecting the most sensitive species in previous studies. The parameters specific to FRRF (Ρ, σ, τ1, τ2, τ3) were those most sensitive to PSII inhibitors, compared to the standard fluorescence parameters derived from other fluorescence protocols such as Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) fluorometry (F0, Fm, Fv/Fm) and extracted chlorophyll a concentrations. Based on these findings, existing national environmental guidelines and standards are insufficient to adequately prevent adverse effects of atrazine and other PSII inhibiting herbicides on algal physiology in aquatic ecosystems.

Calanoid copepod zooplankton density is positively associated with water residence time across the continental United States.

Inherent differences between naturally-formed lakes and human-made reservoirs may play an important role in shaping zooplankton community structure. For example, because many reservoirs are created by impounding and managing lotic systems for specific human purposes, zooplankton communities may be affected by factors that are unique to reservoirs, such as shorter water residence times and a reservoir's management regime, compared to natural lakes. However, the environmental factors that structure zooplankton communities in natural lakes vs. reservoirs may vary at the continental scale and remain largely unknown. We analyzed data from the 2007 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Lakes Assessment and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' National Inventory of Dams to compare large-bodied crustacean zooplankton communities (defined here as individuals retained by 0.243 mm mesh size) in natural lakes and reservoirs across the continental U.S. using multiple linear regressions and regression tree analyses. We found that large-bodied crustacean zooplankton density was overall higher in natural lakes compared to reservoirs when the effect of latitude was controlled. The difference between waterbody types was driven by calanoid copepods, which were also more likely to be dominant in the >0.243 mm zooplankton community in natural lakes than in reservoirs. Regression tree analyses revealed that water residence time was not a major driver of calanoid copepod density in natural lakes but was one of the most important drivers of calanoid copepod density in reservoirs, which had on average 0.5-year shorter water residence times than natural lakes. Reservoirs managed for purposes that resulted in shorter residence times (e.g., hydroelectric power) had lower zooplankton densities than reservoirs managed for purposes that resulted in longer residence times (e.g., irrigation). Consequently, our results indicate that water residence time may be an important characteristic driving differing large-bodied zooplankton dynamics between reservoirs and natural lakes.